TechCast analysis suggests that a 35-year economic boom has begun. It is likely to be punctuated by sharp drops, but they will not last long.
Rocky Boom Ahead
Rocky Boom Ahead
The TechCast Team
TechCast’s analysis of the US economy’s 35-year growth cycles supported our forecast of a long-term boom caused by the technology revolution starting about 2015. Now, recent indicators confirm the cycle is turning up with a flourish. The New York Times reported in January 2018:
“Every major economy on earth is expanding at once, a synchronous wave of growth that is creating jobs, lifting fortunes and tempering fears of popular discontent.”
We are likely to see the booms and busts normal in any market system, but these will be minor blips in a 35-year upcycle that benefits from a vast range of breakthroughs as the technology revolution picks up speed. Our forecasts collectively suggest a potential of about US$50-60 trillion growth in the global economy over the next decade due to this wave of emerging technologies, almost doubling the present world GDP.
President Trump is taking credit for this upswing, which began years before his election, but mounting national debt, trade wars, a stock-market bubble, political isolation of the US, and other excesses could trigger severe corrections. In these lofty economic realms, where price-earnings ratios often reach 40–50, anything could ignite the next crash—war with North Korea or Iran, global environmental disaster, and even the impeachment of a president.
Tech Cast advises strategic planners to build on buoyant growth prospects over the next 30 years, but to prepare also for severe, but transient, downturns. Be aware, too, of the less predictable threats called out in our Wild Cards.
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